Cynicism vs. Surrealism

While it pays more to become a cynic, a surrealist becomes more in touch with God.
What "they" (we know who you are) do is despicable.
The Lord is close to the despairing; Paradoxically when people get thrust into hells created on this earth they become close to despairing.

One Engineer’s Statistical Experience

“Data trumps intuition.” But is intuition the same thing as “engineering judgment” or do different levels of logical control become applied to individuals and are these intended to make examples for the group? If you can prove something with statistics does this satisfy the expectation that it will become true? How can we exist in the dream world of go/no go, in/out, up/down, on/off, guilty/not guilty—opposites, when purportedly every line crossing is explainable, intentional, and irreversible?

*Bias Alert! If we learn…we might be able to guess the reason for study and we might rethink our opinion of the data. “Who is made to hold a smoking gun” should make us suspicious when there is no crime. Knowing the context of the data protects us from misinterpretation.

Lulled into Complicity.

Illustration: Consider that a particular motto “Tough on Flaws” gets adopted by the quality control manager at a plastic bag manufacturing company. Although the bags are remarkably versatile, have excellent capacity, and are long-lasting, nowhere in the product description is the claim “completely waterproof” because in fact the bags do leak. The R&D department is testing different polymer combinations which could maintain existing benefits as well as provide additional benefits (such as increased leak-resistance) but to date these investigations have not been conclusive.

Who? What? Why? If bags are under-filled, the contents only slightly liquid (i.e. mostly solids), or the stress is not repetitive…voilà! The claim is made that the bags are now leak free (albeit no longer simultaneously dry while demonstrating the other desired traits). By changing the usual and accepted definition of goodness the authority has contaminated our value system and we suffer demoralization.

If a sample is filled with fluid to over-capacity and gets repeatedly stressed, the bag fails to endure the trial. When QC or any such power imparts a battery of examinations designed to “expose flaws” and is (thereby) generating proof of claims, the basic measuring system is compromised. Such is the method some charging decisions follow.

Imagine the shock when consumers discover they were duped. The horror is that “bait and switch” tactics produced an end which does not justify the means. Dismay is an understatement of the disappointment that follows exposition of flawed logic. Recalcitrant authorities must set right the disturbed integrity of samples else all will be lost!

Back to our example. If you are perfectly satisfied with outcomes—say the resealable one gallon bag will hold up to one gallon of your produce—and suddenly the bag manufacturer switches their product, claiming “New and Improved—Now Leakproof” then what consequence are you willing to accept? Yes it is new but No it is not improved. Now a ten pound bag won’t hold ten pounds. Its goodness has been diminished.

Rejection of the argument “unacceptable loss” because “the old product was flaw-laden” is not agreeable. Forget the fact you went through learning curves, paid your dues, caused a few mistakes but made a lot of excellent contributions too, and gained efficiencies in areas outside your chosen field of expertise. You yourself are recovering from system vulnerability (it takes 20 pounds of effort to achieve 10 pounds of fit). Advocate for mutual respect.

Causality.

To establish causality, you need to run controlled experiments. There are many books on controlled experiments in multiple domains, including health.

That’s where you should search for related materials.

--Ronny Kohavi Director of Data Mining and Personalization, Amazon.com

If I caused you to trip and you caused the next guy to stumble and they caused the one after them to fall and so on, when does blame enter the scope? Say that I developed an amazing fertilizer which increased the outcome of production ten-fold, a distributor incorporated a binding agent to prevent storage decay making the fertilizer 1/10^th the previous cost (due to reduction in losses), and a farmer applied the fertilizer to a crop which was in remarkably short supply, thereby increasing availability. Furthermore the law of Supply and Demand happened to not keep up with this particular consumable. Now it turns out that all who came within six degrees of contact with the commodity are stricken with cancer. But forget trying to make sense of this toilet-bowl spiral in shame…

Instead say that I recognized an amazing cure for an undeniable trend in the population’s behavior. The authorities said “not interested” but I looked for a way to develop interest anyway. A second batch of rejections came from the establishment. Undaunted I tried again. A third layer of naysayers shot me down. And so on until I could go no further. Finally someone recognizes the goodness of the proposition however by this time changes must be made and modifications are required in order for the agenda to proceed. What caused the population to refuse healing? When does complicity in rejection of solution become involvement for advancing success?

Credit? Blame? Promised improvement does not supersede viable deliverables. The Customer/Supplier chain puts us all in the same bed; if one is guilty then the other is guilty too—we all lose when the population distances itself from compassion and care for the individual! Perhaps the greatest criminals are those who sway public opinion without getting caught.

*I am concerned this article has gotten too philosophical. It is not too intellectual for anyone to recognize the argument that there will never be proof of which came first: chicken or egg. However when present day authorities cite evidential observations as clues to justifiy the advancement of one agenda it necessarily restricts other advancements. The public is known for catching on to whatever version of the truth pleases them. For example, "Let them eat cake" (see http://urbanlegends.about.com/od/dubiousquotes/a/antoinette.htm) could be a misquote which lives on in infamy.

The Honest Truth

Two camps: Visual Learners/Experiential-Based Planners
Two endings: "Good for the Goose"/"I can't watch"
Too late: Nobody cares/Enough
To end is to begin again in a new direction
Too bad...we were just getting the hang of it
Tue too soon?/Two too few/To two Tues too?
 Tutu, Two to's. Too too difficult to expect anyone to navigate through impossible circumstances and find a way to bail us all out.

The miserable part is that we could have done it all.
We should have known better, tried harder, and expected more.
Silent Night sounds good even when it can't be heard.

A unifying element is the need to survive.
I'm afraid your boys don't see things the same way as most of our'n.
Pay attention: what do you read between the lines?

Balance Your Passion

What the world needs more of is...
Whenever I feel strongly about something I should wonder "How will this influence my world?" and "How will the world react to me?"
For example, if I took everything I love and brought it together under one cause, would I be willing to follow the dreams spun from that cause into death?
The reality is that there won't be ample opportunities for redo's.Like precious metals which are set to show off the beauty of stones, there isn't nearly enough of the good stuff to make a second round.
Get serious. Get in. Get happy. Get ready to get out.

Goodbye To Engineering

I want to make choices as simple as possible. Let’s be perfectly clear: I decided it was time for a career transition. After 25 + years of working in various industries and engineering fields I executed my exit strategy:

1.     cease seeking work as an engineer

2.     rejuvenate lost interests

3.     develop career path

A) Why should I do it? I would not die from stress-related illness in a cube somewhere working as an underappreciated contract employee but it surely seemed possible! The first thing to let go of was my willingness to absorb the consequences of bad technical decisions made by others. I didn't burn out so much as I could no longer justify repression of my instinctive nature. Some things were chosen as personal preference only. It was time for my likes and dislikes to become known. It was time for my opinions to be followed. It was time for real change. I chose to not renew the professional license because frankly I was tired of mitigating blunders; I would no longer serve in a capacity where byproducts required me to have error and omission liability insurance. I could become free again!
B) When should I do it? Collapse of global economic conditions further induced my hiatus. As one who was carrying too much responsibility, I bailed out, becoming a fixture at the fitness center and devoting vast concentrations of attention to music in the church choir. Finally I reconnected with ideals of my past:

• help people
• develop spiritually
• be grateful, kind, and generous

C) Could I make it? and How would I know? I am blessed with a loving wife and family. My friends and acquaintances patiently endorsed the zeal to move forward. I was overjoyed! The salient features of making this career transition included:

1.     choose a more life-giving field

2.   update educational qualifications at school

3.     transition (return) to becoming a full-time student

Absolutely I was at the top of my game before emergance as an engineer. I dug deep and rediscovered my passion came from 9th grade math (Algebra). I was a math tutor in high school and I loved it. Eureka! That's it! I would become a math teacher! Other factors made this quest appealing:

·        Diversified industry experience like mine is rare

·        Knowledgeable math and science teachers are in high demand

·        Male teachers are in limited supply

Job-seeker awareness also applied to this career transition:

1.     I have a lot to offer (everyone does).

2.     We all wake up to our own mornings—nobody else's.

3.     At times the solution of one problem is the start of another but it is still moving forward.

I enrolled at a community college to take a (refresher) math course. I will enroll at a local college in Fall 2012 and begin earning a Masters in Education with an emphasis in math. Here are baseline requirements:

a)     Earn a Master's Degree in Education

b)    Qualify to teach upper grades (9th and above)

c)     How shall this be paid for? Scholarship? Sponsors? Out-of-pocket expense? Loans? The financial picture always influences outcome.

Pursuit of technical brilliance is over. Time for me to set new goals.

Pertinence and Relevance

We are screwed in a global society. We do not understand pertinence or relevance.

It does no good to explain the difference. Instead, examine the noted examples and draw your own conclusion:

• The neighbor commits suicide.
• It is the neighbor's turn to drive the carpool.

Impertinence is not the same as irrelevance.

• One person makes a difference for another person.
• I am not impacted by what others do.

A pertinent contribution is one which continues to exploration of a (going) concern at hand (locate the next petrol station when your fuel tank gague reads Empty); a relevant input explores more easily recognizable truth (the 500 km car trip will require refueling of the vehicle). 

• Is it pertinent that we don't connect with loved ones? Is it relevant that we remain this way?

If we allow "Math Gods" to define the universe we become lesser beings. Statistic analysis is true and irrefutable. Try calculating the odds for survival.